Updated Today
Treasury yields face upward pressure in early 2026, with markets assigning a 35% probability that the 10-year yield hits 4.4% by March 31st. This level would represent a significant move and would reshape borrowing costs across mortgages, business loans, and consumer credit.
Current Probability
If Yes wins
$13.70 return per $1
If No wins
$1.08 return per $1
Price Changes
KalshiCPI Inflation Above 3.1% Mar 2026
Outcome: Above 3.1%
KalshiCPI Inflation Above 3% in Mar 2026
Outcome: Above 3.0%
KalshiWill the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.7% for the year ending in March 2026?
Outcome: Above 2.7%
KalshiWill the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in March 2026?
Outcome: Above 3.3%
KalshiWill the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in March 2026?
Outcome: Above 2.8%
KalshiWill the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.9% for the year ending in March 2026?
Outcome: Above 2.9%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 18?
PM·$344.1K volS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 19?
PM·$297.5K volBitcoin Up or Down on March 19?
PM·$302.3K volBitcoin Up or Down on March 18?
PM·$318.5K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11AM ET
PM·$268.3K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2PM ET
PM·$249.0K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9AM ET
PM·$237.2K volBitcoin Up or Down on March 20?
PM·$216.5K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3PM ET
PM·$213.3K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12PM ET
PM·$208.8K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3PM ET
PM·$203.4K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11AM ET
PM·$199.7K vol