What are the current odds for "Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.5% by March 31?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 6.1% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $53.2K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.5% by March 31?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 6.1% or No shares at 93.9%. The market has $13.1K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 1 weeks (Mar 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketeconomics

Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.5% by March 31?

Updated Today

Treasury yields significantly influence borrowing costs across the economy, making the 4.5% threshold economically meaningful. Markets currently give the 10-year yield just a 10% chance of hitting that level by March 31, 2026, suggesting expectations for lower rates.

Current Probability

6.1%-0.00%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$16.39 return per $1

If No wins

$1.06 return per $1