What are the current odds for "Will Russia invade another country in 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 8.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $327.4K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Russia invade another country in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 8.0% or No shares at 92.0%. The market has $58.1K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketother

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

Updated 3 hr ago

This market tracks whether Russia initiates a military offensive to seize control of territory in any UN member state besides Ukraine by the end of 2026. Markets currently assign this scenario a 9% probability, based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Current Probability

8.0%-0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$12.50 return per $1

If No wins

$1.09 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.