What are the current odds for "Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 25.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $176.8K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 25.0% or No shares at 75.0%. The market has $30.0K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 9 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

Updated Today

Markets assign a 22% probability to a U.S. military intervention in Latin America during all of 2026, reflecting geopolitical tensions but no imminent consensus crisis. This broad-year bet reflects concerns about regional instability, drug trafficking operations, or democratic backsliding across the Americas.

Current Probability

25.0%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$4.00 return per $1

If No wins

$1.33 return per $1