What are the current odds for "Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 84.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $270.7K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 84.5% or No shares at 15.5%. The market has $64.1K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 9 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Updated Today

Kostyantynivka in eastern Ukraine remains contested territory as Russia advances its war objectives amid international scrutiny. Markets currently give Russia an 87% chance of capturing the city by year-end, reflecting assessed momentum on the ground.

Current Probability

84.5%-0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$1.18 return per $1

If No wins

$6.45 return per $1