What are the current odds for "Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 10.8% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $85.4K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 10.8% or No shares at 89.3%. The market has $1.8K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 9 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?

Updated Today

A Microsoft acquisition of TikTok remains a low-probability scenario heading into 2026. Markets currently give the deal just a 12% chance of closing by December 31, 2026, reflecting both regulatory hurdles and the complexity of valuing and integrating the massive social platform.

Current Probability

10.8%-0.00%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$9.30 return per $1

If No wins

$1.12 return per $1