What are the current odds for "Will Amazon acquire TikTok?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 4.4% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $62.2K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Amazon acquire TikTok?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 4.4% or No shares at 95.6%. The market has $2.2K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 9 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will Amazon acquire TikTok?

Updated Ended

TikTok faces potential US bans due to national security concerns, making acquisition by American companies like Amazon theoretically attractive—but the social platform's Chinese ownership and data complexities create immense regulatory hurdles. Markets price an Amazon acquisition at just 4% likely by end of 2026, reflecting widespread skepticism about the deal's feasibility.

Current Probability

4.4%+0.03%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$22.73 return per $1

If No wins

$1.05 return per $1