What are the current odds for "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 4.4% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Limitless with $8.5K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?"?

This market is available on Limitless. You can trade Yes shares at 4.4% or No shares at 95.6%. The market has $8.5K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Jan 1, 2027). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Limitlesspolitics

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Updated 2 min ago

Current Probability

4.4%

Trade on Limitless

YesNo

If Yes wins

$22.73 return per $1

If No wins

$1.05 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Limitless

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Price History

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0x5D1C4EC2B34229b5f64CE9c33f6c293D062Cc606

94¢$2811 week ago