
Updated Today
A U.S. anti-cartel ground operation inside Mexico by June 30, 2026 carries just a 29% probability, reflecting skepticism about overt military intervention despite ongoing drug trafficking threats. Such an operation would mark a significant escalation in cross-border security operations.
Current Probability
If Yes wins
$3.51 return per $1
If No wins
$1.40 return per $1
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US Anti-Cartel Op in Mexico by Mar 31
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by March 31, 2026?
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by March 31, 2026?
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by June 30, 2026?