What are the current odds for "U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 28.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $72.2K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 28.5% or No shares at 71.5%. The market has $13.2K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 3 months (Jun 30, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?

Updated Today

A U.S. anti-cartel ground operation inside Mexico by June 30, 2026 carries just a 29% probability, reflecting skepticism about overt military intervention despite ongoing drug trafficking threats. Such an operation would mark a significant escalation in cross-border security operations.

Current Probability

28.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$3.51 return per $1

If No wins

$1.40 return per $1