What are the current odds for "Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 13.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $112.1K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 13.0% or No shares at 87.0%. The market has $12.3K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 9 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

Updated Today

Pierre Poilievre's leadership of Canada's Conservative Party faces only a 21% chance of ending before 2027, suggesting markets expect him to remain in control despite internal party tensions and electoral pressure. His tenure will shape the opposition's strategy against Trudeau's government.

Current Probability

13.0%+0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$7.69 return per $1

If No wins

$1.15 return per $1