Updated Today
Pete Hegseth's tenure as Secretary of Defense faces a March 31, 2026 deadline in this market, with just 6% implied probability he'll be removed by then. The low odds suggest confidence in his political survival despite any controversy, though the market is active enough to indicate some real risk. His potential departure would reshape Pentagon leadership during a critical period.
Current Probability
If Yes wins
$74.07 return per $1
If No wins
$1.01 return per $1
Price Changes
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?
PM·$5.98M volBitcoin Up or Down on March 16?
PM·$1.27M volWill Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March?
PM·$20.65M volWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 18?
PM·$892.8K volWill Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?
PM·$6.40M volWill the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 17?
PM·$821.9K volWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 18?
PM·$903.9K volWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 18?
PM·$813.3K volWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 20?
PM·$824.6K volWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 16?
PM·$833.1K volWill the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 16?
PM·$762.7K volWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 17?
PM·$732.4K vol
KalshiPete Hegseth Leaves Sec of Defense
Outcome: Pete Hegseth
KalshiFarage Becomes UK PM by 2030
Outcome: Pete Hegseth
KalshiWill Pete Hegseth visit Venezuela before May 1, 2026?
Outcome: Pete Hegseth
KalshiWill Pete Hegseth visit Iran before Jul 1, 2026?
Outcome: Pete Hegseth
