What are the current odds for "Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 17.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $137.8K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 17.5% or No shares at 82.5%. The market has $16.0K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 9 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

Updated Today

Earth faces constant asteroid risk, though impacts of 10 kilotons or larger remain statistically rare—equivalent to multiple nuclear weapons. Markets currently give a major meteor strike in 2026 just 17% odds, suggesting traders believe established tracking systems and orbital mechanics make catastrophic impact unlikely this year.

Current Probability

17.5%+0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$5.71 return per $1

If No wins

$1.21 return per $1