What are the current odds for "1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 2.7% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $114.1K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 2.7% or No shares at 97.3%. The market has $35.3K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketother

1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?

Updated 5 days ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Currently 2.7% on Polymarket, with $114,089 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

2.7%-0.00%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$37.04 return per $1

If No wins

$1.03 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.

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