Updated Today
If U.S. imports of goods by customs basis from China (FRED series IMPCH) in calendar year 2026 are below $300 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
As of April 4, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $220 billion? are: Below $300 billion: 89%, Below $280 billion: 81%, Below $260 billion: 64%, Below $240 billion: 26%, Below $220 billion: 9%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $220 billion? is currently available on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability as new markets are added regularly.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
Buy