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If the International Energy Agency reports in the first edition of its Oil Market Report containing the April 2026 observation that Russia's crude exports for April 2026 were below 4.0 million barrels per day, then the market resolves to Yes.
As of March 28, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Will Russia's crude exports for April 2026 be below 4.0 mbpd? are: Below 4.0 mbpd: 74%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Will Russia's crude exports for April 2026 be below 4.0 mbpd? is currently available on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability as new markets are added regularly.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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