Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense?
Updated 1m ago
If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense [outcome], then the market resolves to Yes.
Market analysis
Analysis generated Aug 31, 2026
Kalshi prices a 30% chance Hegseth exits as Secretary of Defense before December 2026, but only 6% before October 1—implying the market sees resignation as a tail-risk outcome despite months of bipartisan calls for his ouster over classified-handling scandals and military firings. Hegseth remains actively in post and defended Pentagon spending to Senate just hours ago, with reporting suggesting he has grown more confident in his job security despite the controversies.
As of September 7, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? are: Before Dec 1, 2026: 25%, Before Nov 1, 2026: 13%, Before Oct 1, 2026: 6%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? is currently listed on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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