Before 2027When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
Updated 3h ago
If OpenAI announces that they have attained AGI by Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Market analysis
Analysis generated Sep 1, 2026
Kalshi's implied odds of Before 2030 (61%) vs. Before 2028 (34%) suggest the market discounts OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's August 2026 claim of internal AGI by year-end 2026. OpenAI's Chief Research Officer estimates the company is 80% of the way there, and Altman has repeatedly narrowed and redefined AGI to match current capabilities, but definitional disputes and the history of missed timelines keep the bulk of probability mass in 2028–2030. The gap between Before 2027 (17%) and Before 2028 (34%) reflects skepticism that any resolution will stick before late 2027.
As of September 7, 2026, the Kalshi odds for When will OpenAI achieve AGI? are: Before 2030: 66%, Before 2028: 65%, Before 2027: 28%, Before 2025: 2%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
When will OpenAI achieve AGI? is currently listed on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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