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If the next reconciliation bill to become law includes a reduction in Medicaid spending before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
As of April 12, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Will Defense appropriations totaling more than $1 billion be in the next reconciliation bill? are: Funding for ICE/CBP lasting ≥1 year: 71%, Funding for ICE/CBP lasting ≥3 years: 49%, Funding for all of DHS lasting ≥1 year: 46%, Funding for all of DHS lasting ≥3 years: 40%, Defense appropriations >$1 billion: 16%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Will Defense appropriations totaling more than $1 billion be in the next reconciliation bill? is currently available on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability as new markets are added regularly.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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