Alexi Giannoulias
Susana Mendoza
Brandon Johnson
John Kitover
Matt BrewerUpdated 1h ago
If Susan Mendoza wins the 2027 Chicago mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Market analysis
Analysis generated Aug 16, 2026
Kalshi gives Illinois Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias a commanding 50% win probability, reflecting his dominant fundraising haul of $22 million and broad coalition backing from business and unions announced in early August. Incumbent Mayor Brandon Johnson is priced at just 5% despite market uncertainty over whether he'll formally declare—a reflection of his collapsed approval ratings and weak $631,000 fundraising after a historically poor second quarter. The second-tier challengers Susana Mendoza (17%) and Matt Brewer (9%) are distant runners-up, with the race structurally favoring Giannoulias as a centrist alternative in a splintered field of nine-plus candidates heading into the Feb.
As of October 11, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Chicago Mayor winner? are: Alexi Giannoulias: 68%, Susana Mendoza: 16%, Brandon Johnson: 16%, John Kitover: 3%, Matt Brewer: 2%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Chicago Mayor winner? is currently listed on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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