Pete Hegseth out
Updated 2d ago
Market analysis
Analysis generated Sep 6, 2026
Polymarket prices Hegseth at just 4% to leave by month-end but 21% by December 31, implying the market sees moderate risk of departure over the next four months despite mounting pressure. Trump publicly backed Hegseth early September despite high-profile Republican calls for his ouster, particularly from Sen. Thom Tillis who invoked "inept management." The catalyst: Army Secretary Dan Driscoll's resignation and cascading departures of senior officers amid Hegseth's personnel purges, compounded by an unpopular Iran war and Signal chat controversies, have eroded Capitol Hill confidence even among Trump allies.
As of September 7, 2026, the Polymarket odds for Pete Hegseth out are: Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?: 21%, Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by September 30?: 5%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Pete Hegseth out is currently listed on Polymarket. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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