Updated Today
If number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 50 from Mar 30, 2026 to Apr 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
As of April 1, 2026, the Kalshi odds for 10 are: Above 5: 92%, Above 20: 63%, Above 15: 61%, Above 10: 53%, Above 25: 48%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
10 is currently available on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability as new markets are added regularly.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
