iran regime
Updated 5m ago
Market analysis
Analysis generated Sep 9, 2026
Markets price Iranian regime survival through 2026 at 93%, implying only 7% odds of collapse—a striking disconnect from February's US-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and triggered an unprecedented succession crisis. The Revolutionary Guards and successor structures have consolidated power under an Interim Leadership Council despite the leadership vacuum, mass casualties, and wartime constraints, containing protests and preventing elite defections that would constitute formal regime fall under resolution criteria.
As of September 11, 2026, the Polymarket odds for iran regime are: Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: 7%, Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?: 1%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
iran regime is currently listed on Polymarket. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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