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If the U.S. produces at least 14.40 million barrels of oil per day, between Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
As of March 25, 2026, the Kalshi odds for How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? are: At least 13.75M bpd: 97%, At least 13.80M bpd: 92%, At least 13.90M bpd: 90%, At least 14.00M bpd: 78%, At least 14.10M bpd: 63%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? is currently available on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability as new markets are added regularly.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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