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If Elon Musk supports at least 75 non-incumbents who win Congressional seats in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
As of March 23, 2026, the Kalshi odds for How many Elon-backed challengers will win seats in Congress in 2026? are: At least 5: 17%, At least 10: 9%, At least 20: 7%, At least 15: 7%, At least 25: 6%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
How many Elon-backed challengers will win seats in Congress in 2026? is currently available on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability as new markets are added regularly.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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