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If, from June 2025 to January 2030 the U-3 unemployment rate is above 20%, the market resolves to Yes.
As of March 23, 2026, the Kalshi odds for How high will unemployment get before 2030? are: Above 5%: 88%, Above 6%: 80%, Above 7%: 76%, Above 8%: 63%, Above 9%: 52%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
How high will unemployment get before 2030? is currently available on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability as new markets are added regularly.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
