Question 1

What is the predicted temperature for Buenos Aires on April 2?

Accepted Answer

Based on prediction market trading on Polymarket, the most likely outcomes are: 28°C: 24%, 27°C: 20%, 29°C: 19%, 26°C: 14%, 30°C: 14%. These forecasts are derived from real-money trades — traders put their own money behind their weather predictions, which tends to produce well-calibrated probability estimates.

Question 2

How accurate are prediction market weather forecasts?

Accepted Answer

Prediction markets aggregate information from many participants who have financial incentives to be accurate. For weather events, markets incorporate data from weather models, local knowledge, and historical patterns. The price of each outcome reflects the crowd's real-money probability estimate.

Question 3

Where can I see more weather prediction markets?

Accepted Answer

PredictMarketCap tracks thousands of weather markets across Polymarket and Kalshi, covering temperature, rain, and snow forecasts for cities including New York, Chicago, Seattle, London, Shanghai, Seoul, and more.

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on April 2?

All Outcomes

28°C

27°C

Frequently Asked Questions

29°C

26°C

30°C

31°C

24°C

25°C

32°C

23°C or below

33°C or higher