| Outcome |  Kalshi |  Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
B By May 26, 2026 | 1%settled | 0%settled | - |
Background, methodology, and platform context
Compare Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA6) release prediction market odds side by side across Polymarket, Kalshi. Platforms show similar odds, with an average spread of just 0.0pp. Close agreement often signals strong market consensus. With $15.25M in combined trading volume across 1 outcomes, this is one of the most actively traded cross-platform prediction markets.
Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME])
If GTA 6 has been released on a major platform (PS5, Xbox Series X/S, Windows) before May 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.
