Compare 2026 United States Congressional Elections prediction market odds side by side across Kalshi, Polymarket. Platforms show similar odds, with an average spread of just 0.5pp. Close agreement often signals strong market consensus. With $118.8K in combined trading volume across 2 outcomes, this is one of the notable cross-platform prediction markets.
Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME])
If the [OUTCOME] has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Victory will be determined by the party identification of the Speaker of the House on February 1, 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections: - Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House - Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.
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