Updated Today
Venezuela's 2026 presidential race remains contested after disputed 2024 elections, with opposition leader María Corina Machado banned from running. Markets give Trump a 19% chance of endorsing her by year-end 2026, reflecting uncertainty over U.S. intervention in the opposition's strategy.
Current Probability
If Yes wins
$5.26 return per $1
If No wins
$1.23 return per $1
Price Changes
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 15)
PM·$4.37M volIslanders vs. Senators
PM·$988.1K volSenators vs. Capitals
PM·$795.3K volTrump out as President by March 31?
PM·$8.45M volWill Trump visit China by March 31?
PM·$3.71M volTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
PM·$2.39M volKigali 2: Marco Trungelliti vs Marco Cecchinato
PM·$203.2K volIslanders vs. Senators: O/U 5.5
PM·$189.3K volMiami Open: Elena Rybakina vs Yulia Putintseva
PM·$154.4K volTrump out as President by June 30?
PM·$469.5K volTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?
PM·$1.02M volWill Trump visit China by April 30?
PM·$2.32M vol
KalshiWill Venezuela hold a presidential election before Sep 1, 2026?
Outcome: Before Sep 1, 2026
KalshiWill Venezuela hold a presidential election before Apr 1, 2026?
Outcome: Before Apr 1, 2026
KalshiWill Venezuela hold a presidential election before Jun 1, 2026?
Outcome: Before Jun 1, 2026
KalshiWill Venezuela hold a presidential election before Jan 1, 2027?
Outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027
KalshiWill Venezuela hold a presidential election before Jun 1, 2027?
Outcome: Before Jun 1, 2027
KalshiWill Delcy Rodriguez leave Acting President of Venezuela before Jan 1, 2027?
Outcome: Delcy Rodriguez
