What are the current odds for "Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 93.2% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $65.5K in total volume.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 3 months (Jun 30, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Q: Where can I trade on "Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 93.2% or No shares at 6.9%. The market has $6.5K in liquidity.

Updated Today

As AI capabilities advance rapidly, markets are watching whether Anthropic's Claude can clear a 35% threshold on Humanity's Last Exam by June 2026. The 90% Yes probability reflects optimism about large language model progress, though the test's rigor and scoring criteria will ultimately determine if this milestone is reached.

Current Probability

93.2%+0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$1.07 return per $1

If No wins

$14.60 return per $1