What are the current odds for "Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 31.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $160.0K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 31.5% or No shares at 68.5%. The market has $9.7K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 2 weeks (Mar 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

122,371

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,586,740,888

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$475,966,484

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$2,691,719,004

Polymarket$2.32BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$350.67MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$18.48MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

122,371

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,586,740,888

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$475,966,484

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$2,691,719,004

Polymarket$2.32BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$350.67MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$18.48MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Polymarkettech

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

Updated Today

Geopolitical tensions keep shipping through the Strait of Hormuz under close watch, with markets giving 37% odds that at least 20 vessels transit any single day in March 2026. The chokepoint handles roughly one-third of seaborne oil trade globally.

Current Probability

31.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$3.17 return per $1

If No wins

$1.46 return per $1