What are the current odds for "Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 4.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $33.1K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 4.0% or No shares at 96.0%. The market has $16.4K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketpolitics

Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?

Updated 4 weeks ago

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ursula von der Leyen ceases to be the President of the European Commission for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Currently 4.0% on Polymarket, with $33,063 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

4.0%-0.07%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$25.00 return per $1

If No wins

$1.04 return per $1

↓ Compare across platforms More political markets →

Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

An announcement of von der Leyen's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Commission and the European Union, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.