What are the current odds for "US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 16.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $845.9K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 16.5% or No shares at 83.5%. The market has $34.5K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 3 months (Jun 30, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Updated Today

A US-Iran nuclear accord by mid-2026 is considered unlikely, with markets giving the deal only a 21% chance despite ongoing diplomatic discussions. Historical failures and current geopolitical tensions inform these long-odds projections for restoring the JCPOA framework.

Current Probability

16.5%-0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$6.06 return per $1

If No wins

$1.20 return per $1