What are the current odds for "Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 4.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $15.9K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 4.5% or No shares at 95.5%. The market has $8.4K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketother

Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?

Updated 3 weeks ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Currently 4.5% on Polymarket, with $15,881 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

4.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$22.22 return per $1

If No wins

$1.05 return per $1

↓ Compare across platforms Trending markets →

Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.