What are the current odds for "Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 19.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $354.6K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 19.5% or No shares at 80.5%. The market has $22.0K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 9 months (Jan 1, 2027). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

122,957

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,611,438,867

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$485,630,882

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$2,740,910,244

Polymarket$2.37BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$352.21MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$18.97MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

122,957

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,611,438,867

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$485,630,882

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$2,740,910,244

Polymarket$2.37BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$352.21MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$18.97MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Polymarkettech

Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Updated Today

This prediction tracks whether a new memecoin or token can reach a $200M fully diluted valuation within its first day of trading—reflecting the explosive growth potential (and volatility) of crypto launches. Markets currently give this outcome an 18% chance, pricing in both hype cycles and regulatory headwinds.

Current Probability

19.5%-0.04%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$5.13 return per $1

If No wins

$1.24 return per $1