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If a new free trade agreement with China has become law before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
As of March 18, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Will Trump make a new free trade agreement with China before Jan 20, 2029? are: Before 2029: 42%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Will Trump make a new free trade agreement with China before Jan 20, 2029? is currently available on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability as new markets are added regularly.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.