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If the US has 3317.5 million metric tonnes of CO2 emissions or fewer in a year by 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
As of March 23, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Will the US meet its climate goals? are: By 2030: 25%, By 2025: 6%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Will the US meet its climate goals? is currently available on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability as new markets are added regularly.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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