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If any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before January 01, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, the market resolves to Yes.
As of March 18, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027? are: Before 2027: 7%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027? is currently available on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability as new markets are added regularly.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.