Updated 2 months ago
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 90000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Winner: Above -25,000on Aug 7, 2026
What happened
Resolved 2026-08-07
The July 2026 jobs report showed nonfarm payroll employment fell 23,000, landing in the "Above -25,000" winner category and confirming what markets had heavily priced at 96%. The loss came as a shock to Wall Street consensus forecasts of 83,000–95,000 new jobs, with prior months also revised sharply lower—May and June combined running 103,000 jobs behind earlier estimates.
Before Jobs numbers in Jul 2026? resolved, the final Kalshi odds were: Above -25,000: 97%, Above 0: 92%, Above 10,000: 89%, Above 20,000: 87%, Above 30,000: 87%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
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Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
