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If Bitcoin halves before May 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
As of March 23, 2026, the Kalshi odds for When will Bitcoin have its next halving? are: Before May 2028: 90%, Before Jun 2028: 89%, Before Apr 2028: 52%, Before Mar 2028: 7%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
When will Bitcoin have its next halving? is currently available on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability as new markets are added regularly.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.