Updated 7m ago
Market analysis
Analysis generated Sep 16, 2026
Polymarket prices Donalds at 81% despite recent polling showing a dead heat or Jolly ahead. The latest Change Research poll (Sept 9) has Jolly up 47-44, while a Democratic internal from August showed Jolly 46-45, both within or near the margin of error. The market is betting on fundamental Republican strength—Republicans have won every Florida governor race since 1998—but appears to be underweighting Donalds' weak favorables (34% positive, 46% negative despite $65M spent) and the momentum in Democratic-aligned surveys. Jolly's name-recognition as a Trump critic and former congressman may be lifting him in late-deciders.
As of October 15, 2026, the Polymarket odds for Florida Governor Election Winner are: Byron Donalds (R) : 80%, David Jolly (D): 21%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Florida Governor Election Winner is currently listed on Polymarket. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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