| Outcome |  Polymarket |  Kalshi | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
B Before December | - | 3%settled | - |
B Before 2026 | - |
Background, methodology, and platform context
Compare Jerome Powell's Term as Federal Reserve Chair prediction market odds side by side across Polymarket, Kalshi. Platforms show similar odds, with an average spread of just 0.0pp. Close agreement often signals strong market consensus. With $995.4K in combined trading volume across 6 outcomes, this is one of the notable cross-platform prediction markets.
Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME])
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Jerome Powell's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Jerome Powell is no longer Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors (not merely announces he leaves office) by Apr 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.
| - |
B Before September | - | 1%settled | - |
B Before August | - | 1%settled | - |
B Before November | - | 1%settled | - |
 Yes | 0%settled | 0%settled | - |
