| Outcome |  Polymarket |  Kalshi | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
F Fed maintains rateWinner | - | 100%settled | - |
C Cut 25bps | - |
Background, methodology, and platform context
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision has resolved with Fed maintains rate as the winner. $1.06M was traded across Polymarket and Kalshi on 5 outcomes. This page preserves the final odds comparison for historical reference.
Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME])
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for March 2026, currently scheduled for March 17-18. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no March meeting takes place by April 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of >25bps on March 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.
0%settled |
| - |
H Hike 25bps | - | 0%settled | - |
N No | - | 0%settled | - |
 Yes | 0%settled | 0%settled | - |
