What are the current odds for "Will Venezuela become 51st state?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 2.8% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $386.1K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Venezuela become 51st state?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 2.8% or No shares at 97.3%. The market has $69.3K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketother

Will Venezuela become 51st state?

Updated 3 hr ago

This market resolves Yes if any portion of Venezuela is formally annexed by the United States and becomes the 51st state by December 31, 2026. Markets currently assign this outcome a 4% probability.

Current Probability

2.8%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$36.36 return per $1

If No wins

$1.03 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" any portion of Venezuela is formally annexed into the United States of America and becomes the 51st state between January 3, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An official agreement that is announced will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when it is slated to go into effect. If any territory that includes no portion of Venezuelan land is made the 51st US state within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.