What are the current odds for "Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 38.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $167.5K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 38.5% or No shares at 61.5%. The market has $15.8K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 9 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Updated Today

Measles outbreaks in the U.S. have surged in recent years due to declining vaccination rates, particularly in communities with vaccine hesitancy. Markets currently give a 5,000+ case outbreak in 2026 a 41% chance, reflecting ongoing public health concerns about disease resurgence.

Current Probability

38.5%+0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$2.60 return per $1

If No wins

$1.63 return per $1