What are the current odds for "Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 64.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $77.9K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 64.0% or No shares at 36.0%. The market has $8.6K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 9 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Updated Today

Measles cases in the US have surged recently due to vaccination gaps, and markets currently give a 70% chance of at least 4,000 cases in 2026. This threshold would represent a significant outbreak by modern American standards, driven by declining immunization rates.

Current Probability

64.0%+0.04%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$1.56 return per $1

If No wins

$2.78 return per $1