What are the current odds for "Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 32.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $67.1K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 32.0% or No shares at 68.0%. The market has $3.9K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 1 weeks (Mar 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?

Updated Today

After decades of near-elimination, measles has resurged in pockets of the U.S. due to declining vaccination rates. Markets give a 44% chance of at least 1,600 cases by March 31, 2026—a threshold that would signal a meaningful outbreak requiring public health intervention.

Current Probability

32.0%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$3.13 return per $1

If No wins

$1.47 return per $1