What are the current odds for "Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 13.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $302.5K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 13.0% or No shares at 87.0%. The market has $11.6K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 9 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Updated Today

The U.S. faces only a 15% chance of recording at least 12,500 measles cases during 2026, according to prediction markets. This relatively low probability reflects high vaccination coverage nationally, though recent outbreaks in unvaccinated communities and declining immunization rates in some regions remain ongoing public health concerns.

Current Probability

13.0%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$7.69 return per $1

If No wins

$1.15 return per $1