What are the current odds for "Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 13.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $6.47M in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 13.5% or No shares at 86.5%. The market has $10.0K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 9 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Updated Today

Measles vaccination rates in the U.S. have declined significantly in recent years, raising public health concerns. Prediction markets currently assign a 20% probability of hitting 10,000 cases in 2026, a threshold that would signal a major outbreak requiring urgent intervention.

Current Probability

13.5%-0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$7.43 return per $1

If No wins

$1.16 return per $1