What are the current odds for "Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 4.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $1.40M in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 4.5% or No shares at 95.5%. The market has $74.1K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketother

Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

Updated 1 hr ago

This market asks whether the United States will commence a military offensive to establish control over any portion of Greenland's land territory by December 31, 2026. Markets currently assign this scenario a 6% probability.

Current Probability

4.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$22.22 return per $1

If No wins

$1.05 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History

Biggest Trades on This Market

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sell

Go3ami2gon No

94¢$13.2K5 months ago

buy

Go3ami2gon No

89¢$12.7K5 months ago